FINAL: CLE 6 — CWS 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CLE 3.1 - CWS 3.8 (CWS at 55.8% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
CLE
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CWS
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLECWS
+1.5
Run Line (CLE)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.0% (2,722 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
246
CLE
135
Projected
CLE 3.1 — CWS 3.8
Actual
CLE 6 — CWS 5
Pick Results
CWS F5 MLf5_mlWIN+0.42u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Davis Martin R
CWS
FF26%94 mph22% whiff
SI17%93 mph9% whiff
CH15%90 mph14% whiff
Slade Cecconi R
CLE
FF28%93 mph16% whiff
FC25%88 mph20% whiff
SI20%93 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
94°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.000 Total: 0.997
thin air, 10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
4.29ERA
4.67FIP
8.64K/9
4.97BB/9
1.34WHIP
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-43.2% EV
-182
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-23.9% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+17.2% EV
-110
F5_ML HOME
-15.7% EV
-104
ML HOME
-10.0% EV
-108
F5 UNDER 4.5
+6.0% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.5 runs
48.7% win
CLE F5
1.9 runs
34.2% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
54.9%
YRFI
45.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
13%
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.249 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Vargas CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 0.97x
Andrew Benintendi CWS25.2%
ISO: 0.198 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Davis Martin
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Slade Cecconi
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
CLE4 injured
Jose Ramirez 3B10-DAY-IL
Angel Martinez LF10-DAY-IL
Tanner Burns SPDAY-TO-DAY
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=285)
Essentially even matchup with Davis Martin (B-, 9.1 K/9, away team) having slight pitcher advantage over Slade Cecconi (B-, 7.6 K/9, home team). Model gives away team 55.8% but 17.2% UNDER 8.5 edge is high-edge overconfidence trap. Recent UNDER bets show 48.8% WR (D grade); model likely overestimating pitcher quality as volume dampener.
Key Factors
- SLIGHT pitcher advantage away: Davis Martin (B-, 9.1 K/9, 0.54 score) > Slade Cecconi (B-, 7.6 K/9, 0.431 score). K rate edge 2.5 K/9 favors Martin. Model correctly identifies away advantage (55.8% vs market 48.3%).
- 17.2% UNDER edge is HIGH-EDGE OVERCONFIDENCE: Calibration shows recent 10-15% edge range has 12.5% WR. This 17.2% is extreme. Model likely overstating pitcher quality impact on run suppression.
- UNDER bets historically weak: Recent UNDER performance 48.8% WR (D grade, n=82 resolved). League-wide, under bets are underperforming. High-edge UNDER calls are especially risky.
- Weather neutral: 93.8°F, 10.0 mph in-wind at Cleveland (neutral environment). No weather help to under.
Risk Factors
- League-wide ICE_COLD: 20% WR (7d). High-edge UNDER calls are most suspect during cold streaks. 17.2% edge should trigger immediate skepticism.
- Market pricing is defensible: -107 / -107 means market respects both pitchers. 8.5 total is reasonable for two B- arms. Model claiming 6.95 (1.5-run under) is aggressive.
- Recent home underperformance (18.2% WR, 30d): If betting away ML side of 3% edge, recent data shows away underdogs also weak (25% WR). No attractive side.
HIGH EDGE WARNINGUNDER UNPROFITABLEINJURY IMPACTICE COLD LEAGUEMODEL OVERCONFIDENCE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 55.8%
-43.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-43.2 pts
Total
8.5
+17.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →