LAA vs SEA prediction for July 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 4.0 - LAA 2.9. SEA is favored with a 64.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
SEA
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
LAA
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEALAA
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.5% (2,722 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
135
SEA
246
Projected
SEA 4.0 — LAA 2.9
Actual
SEA 1 — LAA 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Walbert Ureña R
LAA
SI32%98 mph17% whiff
CH32%90 mph34% whiff
FF20%98 mph19% whiff
Bryce Miller R
SEA
FF44%96 mph18% whiff
FS22%86 mph26% whiff
SL13%88 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
64°F9 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.974 Total: 0.983
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.26ERA
4.74FIP
9.10K/9
5.18BB/9
1.42WHIP
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-43.3% EV
-133
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-12.4% EV
+100
F5_ML AWAY
-10.5% EV
+164
ML HOME
-4.2% EV
-208
ML AWAY
-2.7% EV
+176
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+2.4% EV
+112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
1.4 runs
28.2% win
SEA F5
2.5 runs
56.0% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
61.4%
YRFI
38.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
81%
Over 1.5 HR
50%
No HR
19%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Walbert Ureña
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Bryce Miller
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Travis d'Arnaud C60-DAY-IL
Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL
Mike Trout CF10-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA7 injured
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Rob Refsnyder DH10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +0YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=285)
Bryce Miller (2.13 ERA elite, B+ grade, 0.692 score) is clear ACE against Walbert Ureña (B- grade, 11.9% BB, limited data). 15-20% pitcher quality advantage justifies 64.1% home win prob, but market at -208 (67.6%) is fairly priced. Small 2.2% UNDER 7.5 edge combined with cold (63.9°F) + in-wind weather creates defendable under at 7.5. Avoid home ML (already fair), prefer under as secondary play.
Key Factors
- ELITE PITCHER ADVANTAGE: Bryce Miller (2.13 ERA, B+, 0.692, 8.0 K/9, 2.5% BB outstanding command) vs Walbert Ureña (B-, high BB, unknown ERA). This is 15-20% win prob swing. SEA should win 62-65%.
- Market fairly prices SEA ML: -208 implies 67.6%. Model at 64.8% is conservative, suggesting market respects Miller. Ace at home with -208 is efficient market pricing.
- Cold + in-wind conditions favor under: 63.9°F (coldest game of slate by far), 9.0 mph in-wind (HR mult 0.974, total mult 0.983). Weather subtracts ~0.5-1.0 runs from neutral. Under at 7.5 is reasonable.
- 2.2% under edge is MARGINAL but zone YELLOW 50.1% WR is weak. However, weather tailwind to under makes this a lean rather than bet.
Risk Factors
- Home ML already priced fairly: -208 means market has incorporated Miller's elite status. No value on SEA ML despite pitcher dominance.
- Marginal under edge: 2.2% is small and in YELLOW zone (50.1% WR, n=285). Not enough for strong conviction.
- Late night game (1:41 AM PT / 9:41 PM ET): Day-night variance and late-night fatigue could impact model accuracy, especially on totals where precision matters.
PITCHER MISMATCHACE ADVANTAGEWEATHER IMPACTCOLD UNDER FAVORABLEMARGINAL EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 64.1%
+2.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+2.4 pts
Total
7.5
+2.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →