CWS vs CLE prediction for July 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 4.8 - CWS 4.0. CLE is favored with a 58.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
CLE
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CWS
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLECWS
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.9% (2,758 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
246
CLE
357
Projected
CLE 4.8 — CWS 4.0
Actual
CLE 4 — CWS 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Anthony Kay L
CWS
FF25%96 mph16% whiff
ST22%82 mph34% whiff
SI18%95 mph16% whiff
Gavin Williams R
CLE
ST26%87 mph42% whiff
FF22%97 mph26% whiff
CU22%83 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
92°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.001 Total: 0.997
thin air, 10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
4.29ERA
4.67FIP
8.64K/9
4.97BB/9
1.34WHIP
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.3% EV
-192
F5 OVER 4.5
+12.1% EV
-104
F5_ML AWAY
-11.1% EV
+112
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+10.4% EV
+160
ML AWAY
-8.6% EV
+112
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-5.8% EV
-114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.2 runs
35.6% win
CLE F5
2.9 runs
50.9% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
49.7%
YRFI
50.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.13
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
79%
No HR
6%
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.249 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Vargas CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x
Andrew Benintendi CWS26.5%
ISO: 0.198 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Anthony Kay
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Gavin Williams
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
CLE2 injured
Jose Ramirez 3B10-DAY-IL
Angel Martinez LF10-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 58.3%
+10.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+10.4 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →