FINAL: NYY 5 — MIN 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYY 5.2 - MIN 4.0 (NYY at 64.3% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
NYY
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
MIN
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYMIN
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MIN L5NYY L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.5% (2,758 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
246
NYY
357
Projected
NYY 5.2 — MIN 4.0
Actual
NYY 5 — MIN 2
Pick Results
NYY -1.5run_lineWIN+0.56u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Mike Paredes R
MIN
FF40%93 mph14% whiff
CH22%88 mph21% whiff
ST21%79 mph23% whiff
Gerrit Cole R
NYY
FF41%97 mph16% whiff
SL17%89 mph32% whiff
KC14%83 mph6% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
98°F13 mph wind
HR: 1.037 Total: 1.018
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.99ERA
4.47FIP
8.81K/9
4.51BB/9
1.47WHIP
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-38.9% EV
-114
TOTAL OVER 10.0
-21.3% EV
-104
F5_ML HOME
-11.7% EV
-192
TOTAL UNDER 10.0
+10.7% EV
-118
F5_ML AWAY
+5.7% EV
+152
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-4.2% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
2.3 runs
37.9% win
NYY F5
2.8 runs
49.0% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
48.5%
YRFI
51.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.16
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
80%
No HR
5%
Kody Clemens MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.247 | Barrel: 11.4% | vs Gerrit Cole | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Brooks Lee MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.194 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Gerrit Cole | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.347 | Barrel: 18.3% | vs Mike Paredes | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Mike Paredes
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Gerrit Cole
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Ryan Jeffers C10-DAY-IL
Byron Buxton CFDAY-TO-DAY
Anthony Banda RP15-DAY-IL
Bailey Ober SP15-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY6 injured
Spencer Jones CFDAY-TO-DAY
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 64.3%
-4.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-4.2 pts
Total
10.0
+10.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →