FINAL: ATL 5 — NYM 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected ATL 3.7 - NYM 4.5 (NYM at 55.5% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
ATL
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
NYM
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLNYM
+1.5
Run Line (ATL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYMATL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.7% (2,758 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
346
ATL
246
Projected
ATL 3.7 — NYM 4.5
Actual
ATL 5 — NYM 3
Pick Results
NYM F5 MLf5_mlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Christian Scott R
NYM
FF50%96 mph24% whiff
ST23%81 mph31% whiff
FC17%89 mph17% whiff
Grant Holmes R
ATL
SL38%85 mph39% whiff
FF32%94 mph13% whiff
SI10%93 mph13% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
85°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.058 Total: 1.029
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
ATL
2.18ERA
2.83FIP
9.74K/9
2.51BB/9
1.00WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-40.9% EV
-179
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-20.9% EV
-106
F5_ML HOME
-17.9% EV
-108
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+11.3% EV
-114
ML HOME
-9.7% EV
-108
F5_ML AWAY
+6.9% EV
-116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.8 runs
51.9% win
ATL F5
2.1 runs
35.1% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
50.0%
YRFI
50.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.13
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
8%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.287 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs Grant Holmes | Platoon: 1.12x
Jared Young NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.225 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Grant Holmes | Platoon: 1.12x
Francisco Alvarez NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.165 | Barrel: 7.7% | vs Grant Holmes
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Christian Scott
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Grant Holmes
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Marcus Semien 2B10-DAY-IL
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B60-DAY-IL
Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL8 injured
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Kyle Farmer DH10-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 55.5%
-40.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-40.9 pts
Total
9.0
+11.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →