Who is predicted to win MIA vs OAK on July 3, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, OAK is favored with a 51.2% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is OAK 3.6 - MIA 3.6.

How did MIA vs OAK on July 3, 2026 end?

Final score: OAK 5 - MIA 12. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

MIA vs OAK Prediction & Picks — July 3, 2026

MIA vs OAK prediction for July 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 3.6 - MIA 3.6. OAK is favored with a 51.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.

OAK

3.6

Projected Score

VS O/U 10.5

MIA

3.6

Projected Score

Win Probability

51.2%

48.8%

OAKMIA

-1.5

Run Line (OAK)

10.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.4% (2,758 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

MIA

246

OAK

246

Projected

OAK 3.6 — MIA 3.6

Actual

OAK 5 — MIA 12

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Tyler Phillips R

MIA

SI25%96 mph3% whiff

ST24%84 mph33% whiff

FS23%88 mph31% whiff

Jack Perkins R

OAK

FF36%96 mph14% whiff

ST30%86 mph36% whiff

CH15%90 mph40% whiff

Weather Impact

Oakland Coliseum

65°F9 mph wind

HR: 0.991 Total: 0.994

neutral

Bullpen Comparison

MIA

3.85ERA

3.56FIP

9.97K/9

4.48BB/9

1.21WHIP

OAK

4.87ERA

3.91FIP

9.81K/9

4.20BB/9

1.44WHIP

Betting Edges

TOTAL OVER 10.5

-46.9% EV

-118

TOTAL UNDER 10.5

+39.8% EV

-104

RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5

-32.6% EV

-175

F5 UNDER 5.5

+25.9% EV

-102

NRFI NRFI

+21.8% EV

+126

ML HOME

-9.1% EV

-143

First 5 Innings & NRFI

MIA F5

1.7 runs

37.7% win

OAK F5

2.0 runs

44.5% win

F5 Total

3.7

NRFI

60.9%

YRFI

39.1%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

0.78

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

2.4

Over 0.5 HR

91%

Over 1.5 HR

68%

No HR

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Tyler Phillips

0.0 K projected

MIA | K/9: 0.0

Jack Perkins

0.0 K projected

OAK | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

MIA7 injured

Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL

Janson Junk SP15-DAY-IL

Josh Ekness RP60-DAY-IL

Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL

Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL

Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL

+1 more

OAK8 injured

Brent Rooker DH10-DAY-IL

Tyler Soderstrom LF10-DAY-IL

Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL

Zack Gelof 3B10-DAY-IL

Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL

Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL

+2 more

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

OAK 51.2%

-6.9 pts

Run Line

-1.5

-6.9 pts

Total

10.5

+39.8 pts

How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

MIA vs OAK Prediction