PIT vs WSH prediction for July 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 4.1 - PIT 5.5. PIT is favored with a 62.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 9.6 total runs.
WSH
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
PIT
5.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHPIT
-1.5
Run Line (WSH)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.2% (2,758 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
467
WSH
246
Projected
WSH 4.1 — PIT 5.5
Actual
WSH 9 — PIT 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Mitch Keller R
PIT
FF32%94 mph15% whiff
SI18%92 mph13% whiff
ST17%82 mph23% whiff
Foster Griffin L
WSH
FC31%88 mph18% whiff
FF18%92 mph18% whiff
ST14%80 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
106°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.010 Total: 1.002
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.50ERA
4.23FIP
9.39K/9
4.70BB/9
1.41WHIP
WSH
4.62ERA
4.93FIP
7.77K/9
4.06BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-30.8% EV
+138
F5_ML AWAY
+28.3% EV
+134
F5_ML HOME
-27.7% EV
-167
ML HOME
-23.4% EV
-147
ML AWAY
+22.9% EV
+126
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-14.7% EV
-167
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
2.9 runs
51.9% win
WSH F5
2.2 runs
35.0% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
48.1%
YRFI
51.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.15
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.5
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
85%
No HR
4%
Esmerlyn Valdez PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.150 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Foster Griffin | Platoon: 1.12x
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.303 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs Mitch Keller | Platoon: 1.12x
CJ Abrams WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Mitch Keller | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Mitch Keller
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Foster Griffin
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT4 injured
Spencer Horwitz 1B10-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF10-DAY-IL
Wilber Dotel RP15-DAY-IL
Chris Devenski RP60-DAY-IL
WSH8 injured
Mitchell Parker RP60-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Max Kranick RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 62.9%
-30.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-30.8 pts
Total
9.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →