BAL vs CIN prediction for July 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CIN 4.9 - BAL 5.1. CIN is favored with a 50.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 10.1 total runs.
CIN
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
BAL
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINBAL
+1.5
Run Line (CIN)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 47.5% (2,758 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
357
CIN
357
Projected
CIN 4.9 — BAL 5.1
Actual
CIN 0 — BAL 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Trevor Rogers L
BAL
FF44%93 mph21% whiff
CH22%87 mph22% whiff
ST12%78 mph30% whiff
Brady Singer R
CIN
SI47%91 mph13% whiff
SL31%82 mph31% whiff
ST11%81 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
99°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.025 Total: 1.010
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.34ERA
4.01FIP
8.76K/9
3.44BB/9
1.30WHIP
CIN
4.59ERA
5.23FIP
8.86K/9
5.87BB/9
1.53WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-29.7% EV
-152
TOTAL OVER 10.5
-11.1% EV
-102
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-10.4% EV
+126
F5_ML AWAY
-8.5% EV
-130
ML AWAY
-7.3% EV
-123
F5_ML HOME
-1.4% EV
+104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.9 runs
44.7% win
CIN F5
2.8 runs
43.0% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
45.3%
YRFI
54.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.26
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
81%
No HR
5%
Pete Alonso BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Brady Singer | Park: 1.08x
Adley Rutschman BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.244 | Barrel: 10.8% | vs Brady Singer | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Gunnar Henderson BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.163 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Brady Singer | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Trevor Rogers
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Brady Singer
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Ryan Helsley RPDAY-TO-DAY
Keegan Akin RP15-DAY-IL
Yaramil Hiraldo RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Chris Bassitt SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CIN7 injured
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B10-DAY-IL
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Dane Myers CF10-DAY-IL
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF10-DAY-IL
+1 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CIN 50.2%
-29.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-29.7 pts
Total
10.5
+0.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →