STL vs CHC prediction for July 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 4.6 - STL 3.5. CHC is favored with a 64.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
CHC
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
STL
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCSTL
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.5% (2,758 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
245
CHC
357
Projected
CHC 4.6 — STL 3.5
Actual
CHC 1 — STL 17
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andre Pallante R
STL
FF30%95 mph12% whiff
SL30%88 mph30% whiff
SI19%95 mph12% whiff
David Peterson L
CHC
SI28%92 mph12% whiff
SL24%86 mph29% whiff
FF23%92 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
80°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.069 Total: 1.037
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
CHC
4.04ERA
5.13FIP
8.17K/9
4.04BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-46.5% EV
-185
TOTAL OVER 10.5
-36.6% EV
-122
TOTAL UNDER 10.5
+30.3% EV
+100
F5 UNDER 5.5
+18.1% EV
-102
F5_ML AWAY
-17.0% EV
+102
ML AWAY
-16.7% EV
+108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
1.7 runs
33.1% win
CHC F5
2.5 runs
51.2% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
56.7%
YRFI
43.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
10%
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.251 | Barrel: 10.8% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Ian Happ CHC26.6%
ISO: 0.275 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Seiya Suzuki CHC24.6%
ISO: 0.184 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 1.03x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Andre Pallante
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
David Peterson
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL2 injured
Dustin May SPDAY-TO-DAY
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
CHC8 injured
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Ethan Roberts RP15-DAY-IL
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
Hoby Milner RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 64.2%
+16.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+16.3 pts
Total
10.5
+30.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →