MLB Baseball

CWS vs MIN Prediction

August 29, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

CWS vs MIN prediction for August 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 4.3 - CWS 5.8. CWS is favored with a 56.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 10.1 total runs.

MIN
4.3
Projected Score
VS O/U 9.5
CWS
5.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
43.3%
56.7%
MINCWS
+1.5
Run Line (MIN)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.5% (3,503 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

CWS
468
MIN
246
FINALMIN 2 — CWS 3
Projected
MIN 4.3 — CWS 5.8
Actual
MIN 2 — CWS 3

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Erick Fedde R
CWS
ST37% · 82
SI30% · 94
FC19% · 91
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST37%82 mph21% whiff
SI30%94 mph12% whiff
FC19%91 mph16% whiff
Bailey Ober R
MIN
CH34% · 83
FF32% · 88
SL17% · 82
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH34%83 mph22% whiff
FF32%88 mph14% whiff
SL17%82 mph12% whiff

Weather Impact

Target Field
71°F13 mph wind
HR: 0.998 Total: 0.996
thin air, 8mph in

Bullpen Comparison

CWS
4.33ERA
4.49FIP
9.17K/9
4.61BB/9
1.39WHIP
MIN
4.39ERA
4.03FIP
8.99K/9
3.95BB/9
1.39WHIP

Betting Edges

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Edge Analysis
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First 5 Innings & NRFI

CWS F5
3.1 runs
53.0% win
MIN F5
2.2 runs
32.7% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
53.8%
YRFI
46.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.00

HR Spotlight

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Home Run Analysis
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Injury Report

CWSHealthy
MIN8 injured
Byron Buxton CFDAY-TO-DAY
Joe Ryan SP15-DAY-IL
Austin Martin RF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

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Edge Analysis

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Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.

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