MIA vs WSH prediction for August 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 3.7 - MIA 5.7. MIA is favored with a 58.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.5 total runs.
WSH
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
MIA
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHMIA
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 66.1% (3,503 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
468
WSH
246
Projected
WSH 3.7 — MIA 5.7
Actual
WSH 5 — MIA 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sandy Alcantara R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI27%97 mph9% whiff
CH20%91 mph26% whiff
FF19%97 mph17% whiff
Cade Cavalli R
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%97 mph18% whiff
KC27%86 mph37% whiff
SI13%96 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
84°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.027 Total: 1.013
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
4.24ERA
3.85FIP
9.85K/9
4.21BB/9
1.29WHIP
WSH
5.52ERA
5.24FIP
9.02K/9
4.90BB/9
1.57WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
3.0 runs
54.0% win
WSH F5
1.9 runs
30.3% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
53.5%
YRFI
46.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.98
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP60-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
WSH8 injured
James Wood RF10-DAY-IL
Connelly Early SP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C10-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.