FINAL: STL 2 — PIT 6. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected STL 4.6 - PIT 5.0 (STL at 51.0% win probability). STL wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.6 total runs.
STL
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
PIT
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLPIT
-1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PIT W4STL L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.3% (3,503 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
357
STL
357
Projected
STL 4.6 — PIT 5.0
Actual
STL 2 — PIT 6
Pick Results
PIT @ STL F5 OVER 4.5f5WIN+0.98u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Lake Bachar R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF29%94 mph15% whiff
SL24%90 mph37% whiff
CU18%86 mph35% whiff
Kyle Leahy R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%94 mph13% whiff
SL16%89 mph22% whiff
CU16%83 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
88°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.050 Total: 1.026
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
3.49ERA
3.60FIP
9.84K/9
4.22BB/9
1.26WHIP
STL
4.49ERA
4.32FIP
7.96K/9
4.13BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
-10.7% EV
-141
NRFI NRFI
-9.6% EV
-118
F5 OVER 4.5
+7.4% EV
-102
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-6.7% EV
+168
ML HOME
-4.2% EV
-120
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+3.0% EV
+102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
2.8 runs
42.8% win
STL F5
2.8 runs
43.4% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
47.9%
YRFI
52.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.17
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
6%
Oneil Cruz PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.244 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL28.9%
ISO: 0.201 | Barrel: 12.3% | vs Lake Bachar | Park: 0.98x
Brandon Lowe PIT28.5%
ISO: 0.268 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Lake Bachar
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Kyle Leahy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT4 injured
Endy Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
STL7 injured
Blaze Jordan 3B10-DAY-IL
Andre Pallante SP15-DAY-IL
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
Masyn Winn SS10-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Peter Strzelecki RP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
STL home with even pitching matchup (Leahy 3.38 ERA vs Bachar 3.99 ERA) in neutral-to-high-scoring weather; model shows essentially no edge after vig (+3.0% total, 0.0% ML). historically mixed throughout.
Key Factors
- Pitcher parity: Leahy (B- stuff, 3.38 ERA) vs Bachar (B- stuff, 3.99 ERA). Difference is ~0.6 ERA points — meaningful but not game-changing.
- Bullpen: PIT 3.49 ERA vs STL 4.49 ERA. PIT bullpen is 1.0 ERA better — meaningful late-game advantage but not overwhelming.
- Weather: 87.5°F, thin air (1873 DA), 1.8 mph tailwind (slight boost). HR mult 1.05, total mult 1.026. This inflates runs, favors overs slightly.
- Home field neutral: STL -120 implies 54.5%, model shows 52.4%. Edge -4.2% on home ML. Essentially market correct.
- F5 OVER has 7.4% edge (54.3% prob) — this is the best angle, not the full-game ML or total.
Risk Factors
- Both mid-tier pitchers prone to variance. Game could easily swing either direction.
- Weather inflates totals; market already set at 8.5 reflecting heat. Over/Under both near 50% model confidence — no strong lean.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 51.0%
-6.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-6.7 pts
Total
8.5
+3.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.