SEA vs TOR prediction for August 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 3.1 - SEA 3.5. TOR is favored with a 50.9% win probability. TOR wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.6 total runs.
TOR
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SEA
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORSEA
+1.5
Run Line (TOR)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.3% (3,503 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
245
TOR
135
Projected
TOR 3.1 — SEA 3.5
Actual
TOR 4 — SEA 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kade Anderson L
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%94 mph13% whiff
SL25%88 mph42% whiff
CH22%85 mph17% whiff
José Soriano R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI28%96 mph19% whiff
KC25%85 mph41% whiff
FF23%97 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
77°F14 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.099 Total: 1.056
14mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.81ERA
3.99FIP
9.02K/9
3.38BB/9
1.30WHIP
TOR
3.61ERA
4.13FIP
8.34K/9
3.84BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
1.8 runs
40.0% win
TOR F5
1.8 runs
39.1% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
65.1%
YRFI
34.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.67
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Colt Emerson SS10-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Luke Raley RF60-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Cole Wilcox RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
Jonatan Clase LF60-DAY-IL
Josh Smith 2B10-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.