FINAL: DET 2 — LAD 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected DET 3.2 - LAD 3.8 (LAD at 51.9% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
DET
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
LAD
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETLAD
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.4% (3,503 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
246
DET
135
Projected
DET 3.2 — LAD 3.8
Actual
DET 2 — LAD 1
Pick Results
LAD @ DET F5 UNDER 3.5f5WIN+1.71u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Blake Snell L
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF49%96 mph19% whiff
CU21%80 mph44% whiff
CH18%85 mph38% whiff
Keider Montero R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF30%94 mph12% whiff
SI23%95 mph7% whiff
SL19%86 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
82°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.007 Total: 1.001
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.93ERA
3.86FIP
10.14K/9
4.20BB/9
1.27WHIP
DET
4.15ERA
4.61FIP
8.43K/9
4.22BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.0
-15.2% EV
-118
F5_ML AWAY
-11.9% EV
-189
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-10.1% EV
+100
ML HOME
+9.3% EV
+158
F5 UNDER 3.5
+8.9% EV
+112
ML AWAY
-8.9% EV
-172
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
1.9 runs
44.0% win
DET F5
1.7 runs
36.3% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
63.6%
YRFI
36.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.70
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
81%
Over 1.5 HR
51%
No HR
19%
Shohei Ohtani LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.244 | Barrel: 14.6% | vs Keider Montero | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Max Muncy LAD27.7%
ISO: 0.247 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Keider Montero | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Eduardo Valencia DET21.7%
ISO: 0.433 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Blake Snell | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Blake Snell
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Keider Montero
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Justin Wrobleski SP15-DAY-IL
Roki Sasaki SP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Stone SP60-DAY-IL
Will Smith C60-DAY-IL
Jake Cousins RP60-DAY-IL
Andy Pages CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Matt Vierling CF10-DAY-IL
Riley Greene LF10-DAY-IL
Brant Hurter RP60-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Blake Snell (B grade, 2.78 ERA, 29.9% K-rate) significantly outpitches Montero (B- grade, 3.56 ERA, 16.6% K-rate) on the road; market undervaluing ace vs back-end starter mismatch by ~9% on ML.
Key Factors
- PITCHER MISMATCH (THE EDGE): Snell 2.78 ERA / 29.9% K-rate / B+ stuff vs Montero 3.56 ERA / 16.6% K-rate / C- stuff. Snell is significantly better on the mound. This alone is 8-12% win probability swing.
- Lineup quality: LAD Ohtani (27.7% HR.244 ISO), Muncy (27.7% HR.247 ISO) vs DET Eduardo Valencia (21.7% HR.433 ISO — outlier power but one player). LAD offense deeper.
- Bullpen gap: LAD 3.93 ERA (stronger, better depth) vs DET 4.15 ERA (middle-of-pack). Small but real advantage LAD late-innings.
- Weather neutral: 81.9°F, 8.6 mph headwind (5.5 mph in), 35% humidity. Density altitude 1462 (thin), but wind blowing in suppresses runs slightly. HR mult 1.007, neutral.
- historical support alignment: MODEL 42.4% home ML, MARKET 38.8% (home). Away edge +9.3% in professional data. Model favors road team; margin suggests true edge exists after vig adjustment.
Risk Factors
- Road underdog historically weaker ATS spot; when ace vs back-end mismatch exists, road dog often beats market expectation but base rate for away favorites-in-odds is still historically weak historically (a supportive track record).
- Snell may have minor injury concerns (not 60-day but some pitchers historically back off with new team). Monitor last-minute news.
- LAD's offense can be inconsistent on the road.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 51.9%
+0.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+0.7 pts
Total
7.0
+6.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.