BOS vs NYY prediction for August 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 4.5 - BOS 3.8. NYY is favored with a 57.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
NYY
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
BOS
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYBOS
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.5% (3,503 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
246
NYY
346
Projected
NYY 4.5 — BOS 3.8
Actual
NYY 9 — BOS 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jake Bennett L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%93 mph19% whiff
CH26%84 mph33% whiff
SI24%92 mph7% whiff
Carlos Rodón L
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%94 mph21% whiff
SL25%86 mph31% whiff
CH15%86 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
75°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.037 Total: 1.020
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.11ERA
3.40FIP
9.57K/9
3.07BB/9
1.20WHIP
NYY
3.06ERA
4.01FIP
8.51K/9
3.57BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.3 runs
38.7% win
NYY F5
2.6 runs
45.6% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
57.7%
YRFI
42.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Curtis Mead 3B10-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY8 injured
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan McMahon 3B10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP15-DAY-IL
Kervin Castro RP60-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.