FINAL: MIN 5 — CWS 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIN 3.7 - CWS 5.3 (CWS at 58.7% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.0 total runs.
MIN
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CWS
5.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINCWS
+1.5
Run Line (MIN)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CWS L4MIN
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.5% (3,628 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
357
MIN
246
Projected
MIN 3.7 — CWS 5.3
Actual
MIN 5 — CWS 1
Pick Results
CWS @ MIN F5 UNDER 4.5f5WIN+0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jordan Hicks R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI48%99 mph10% whiff
ST31%87 mph49% whiff
FF15%99 mph24% whiff
Zebby Matthews R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%95 mph11% whiff
SL22%87 mph34% whiff
CH13%87 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
84°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.025 Total: 1.011
thin air, 5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
4.33ERA
4.49FIP
9.17K/9
4.61BB/9
1.39WHIP
MIN
4.38ERA
4.05FIP
9.01K/9
3.99BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
+21.0% EV
-102
F5 OVER 4.5
-13.2% EV
-128
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-13.2% EV
-192
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+11.5% EV
+160
ML HOME
-10.1% EV
-114
ML AWAY
+6.5% EV
+104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
3.0 runs
58.2% win
MIN F5
1.7 runs
26.8% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
56.7%
YRFI
43.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
56%
No HR
16%
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.321 | Barrel: 16.2% | vs Zebby Matthews | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Vargas CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.216 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Zebby Matthews | Park: 0.99x
Colson Montgomery CWS28.1%
ISO: 0.206 | Barrel: 12.4% | vs Zebby Matthews | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jordan Hicks
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Zebby Matthews
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
MIN8 injured
Byron Buxton CFDAY-TO-DAY
Joe Ryan SP15-DAY-IL
Austin Martin RF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Jordan Hicks (4.14 ERA, B-grade stuff) clearly outclasses Zebby Matthews (5.25 ERA, C-grade stuff), and MIN's 9.7% ML edge as a road underdog sits squarely in the historically best-performing 5-10% edge / underdog bucket (a supportive track record).
Key Factors
- ERA gap: Hicks 4.14 vs Matthews 5.25 = 1.11-run swing, favoring MIN's starter
- Stuff grade gap: Hicks B-grade (55.6% score) vs Matthews C-grade (30.7% score) — meaningful quality differential
- ML edge of 9.7% lands in the 5-10% / underdog bucket showing 68.1% historical WR across 47 bets — best profile in the dataset
- F5 AWAY ML edge of 21.0% is the largest F5 mismatch on the slate, reinforcing early-game confidence
- MIN projected 5.31 away runs vs CWS 3.7 home runs despite MIN missing Buxton and Martin
Risk Factors
- Buxton and Martin both freshly on IL — lineup is thinner than model's historical inputs may fully reflect
- Home-field/public-money bias could keep the line from moving in our favor pregame
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 58.7%
-13.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-13.2 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.