MLB Baseball

CWS vs MIN Prediction

August 30, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

CWS vs MIN prediction for August 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 3.7 - CWS 5.3. CWS is favored with a 58.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.0 total runs.

MIN
3.7
Projected Score
VS O/U 8.5
CWS
5.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
41.3%
58.7%
MINCWS
+1.5
Run Line (MIN)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 66.4% (3,503 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

CWS
357
MIN
246

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Jordan Hicks R
CWS
SI48% · 99
ST31% · 87
FF15% · 99
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI48%99 mph10% whiff
ST31%87 mph49% whiff
FF15%99 mph24% whiff
Zebby Matthews R
MIN
FF36% · 95
SL22% · 87
CH13% · 87
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%95 mph11% whiff
SL22%87 mph34% whiff
CH13%87 mph17% whiff

Weather Impact

Target Field
84°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.025 Total: 1.011
thin air, 5mph in

Bullpen Comparison

CWS
4.33ERA
4.49FIP
9.17K/9
4.61BB/9
1.39WHIP
MIN
4.38ERA
4.05FIP
9.01K/9
3.99BB/9
1.39WHIP

Betting Edges

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Edge Analysis
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First 5 Innings & NRFI

CWS F5
3.0 runs
58.2% win
MIN F5
1.7 runs
26.8% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
56.7%
YRFI
43.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92

HR Spotlight

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Home Run Analysis
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Injury Report

CWSHealthy
MIN8 injured
Byron Buxton CFDAY-TO-DAY
Joe Ryan SP15-DAY-IL
Austin Martin RF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

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Edge Analysis

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Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.

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