FINAL: DET 1 — LAD 6. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected DET 2.8 - LAD 2.7 (DET at 53.9% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 5.5 total runs.
DET
2.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
LAD
2.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETLAD
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.6% (3,628 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
135
DET
135
Projected
DET 2.8 — LAD 2.7
Actual
DET 1 — LAD 6
Pick Results
LAD @ DET F5 UNDER 3.5f5WIN+0.47u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tyler Glasnow R
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%95 mph12% whiff
KC22%80 mph50% whiff
SI21%96 mph21% whiff
Framber Valdez L
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI45%94 mph8% whiff
CU29%78 mph28% whiff
CH19%89 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
76°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.995 Total: 0.995
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.92ERA
3.88FIP
10.09K/9
4.21BB/9
1.27WHIP
DET
4.12ERA
4.59FIP
8.41K/9
4.19BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
NRFI YRFI
-24.8% EV
+116
F5 UNDER 3.5
+23.5% EV
+106
F5_ML AWAY
-17.2% EV
-152
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-16.9% EV
+116
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+15.4% EV
-122
F5_ML HOME
+11.3% EV
+122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
1.3 runs
34.3% win
DET F5
1.6 runs
41.0% win
F5 Total
2.9
NRFI
67.7%
YRFI
32.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.60
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.1
Over 0.5 HR
66%
Over 1.5 HR
29%
No HR
34%
Shohei Ohtani LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.271 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Framber Valdez | Park: 0.97x
Dillon Dingler DET23.6%
ISO: 0.265 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Tyler Glasnow | Park: 0.97x
Kevin McGonigle DET22.9%
ISO: 0.163 | Barrel: 7.1% | vs Tyler Glasnow | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tyler Glasnow
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Framber Valdez
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Justin Wrobleski SP15-DAY-IL
Roki Sasaki SP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Stone SP60-DAY-IL
Will Smith C60-DAY-IL
Jake Cousins RP60-DAY-IL
Andy Pages CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Riley Greene LF10-DAY-IL
Matt Vierling CF10-DAY-IL
Brant Hurter RP60-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Tyler Glasnow's elite profile (3.26 ERA, 35.6% K-rate, A- stuff grade) against a merely solid Framber Valdez (4.70 ERA) drives a real 15.4% UNDER edge on the full game and a rare 23.5% edge on F5 UNDER 3.5 — the largest F5 mismatch on the entire slate.
Key Factors
- Glasnow: 3.26 ERA, 35.6% K-rate (elite), 81.9% stuff score (A- grade) — true ace performance
- Valdez: 4.70 ERA, 21.6% K-rate, 21.6% stuff score (C+ grade) — solid but clearly outclassed
- F5 UNDER 3.5 edge of 23.5% is the single largest F5 mismatch found across the 14-game slate
- Comerica Park wind blowing in at 7.3mph suppresses total by an estimated -7.3%
- Confirmed result validates model: Glasnow logged 7 IP, 2 hits, 1 run allowed
Risk Factors
- HIGH EDGE WARNING: 15.4% and 23.5% edges sit above historical overconfidence thresholds — capped at +1.0 confidence, not +2.0, despite the strength of the underlying case
- TOTAL market system-wide distrust (a supportive track record) argues for standard (not maximum) unit sizing
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 53.9%
+5.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+5.2 pts
Total
7.5
+15.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.