FINAL: TB 5 — SD 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TB 3.4 - SD 3.4 (TB at 53.2% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
TB
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
SD
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBSD
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SD L4TB
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.4% (3,628 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
135
TB
135
Projected
TB 3.4 — SD 3.4
Actual
TB 5 — SD 4
Pick Results
SD @ TB NRFInrfiWIN+0.39u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Robbie Ray L
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%93 mph18% whiff
SL24%86 mph33% whiff
CH18%86 mph24% whiff
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC29%90 mph23% whiff
FF29%96 mph24% whiff
SI23%95 mph13% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
86°F4 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.05ERA
3.61FIP
9.75K/9
3.80BB/9
1.21WHIP
TB
3.57ERA
3.87FIP
8.82K/9
2.70BB/9
1.14WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.0
-16.0% EV
-115
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-10.1% EV
+134
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
+7.4% EV
-105
F5_ML HOME
-7.4% EV
-179
F5 UNDER 3.5
+7.3% EV
+112
ML HOME
-6.5% EV
-161
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
1.6 runs
33.6% win
TB F5
2.1 runs
46.7% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
60.4%
YRFI
39.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.76
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.4
Over 0.5 HR
76%
Over 1.5 HR
42%
No HR
24%
Ryan Vilade TB30.0%
ISO: 0.236 | Barrel: 12.4% | vs Robbie Ray | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.211 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Robbie Ray | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Jonathan Aranda TB22.7%
ISO: 0.065 | Barrel: 7.2% | vs Robbie Ray | Park: 0.92x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Robbie Ray
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Drew Rasmussen
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Luis Rengifo LF10-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP60-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Griffin Jax SP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL +0
Rasmussen (3.19 ERA) and Ray (3.47 ERA) are close enough in quality that the 8.5% model-market gap on TB's ML price can't be confidently attributed to pitching, so this is a pass.
Key Factors
- Pitcher parity: Rasmussen 3.19 ERA vs Ray 3.47 ERA — only a 0.28 gap, essentially even
- Model-market ML gap of ~8.5 points (implied) with no clear underlying driver
- Bullpen comparison is a wash: TB 3.57 ERA (elite closer 1.77) vs SD 3.05 ERA (excellent overall, 1.475 quality) — SD arguably better in aggregate
- Tropicana Field closed-roof neutral park factor (1.0) — no weather angle
- UNDER 7.0 edge only 7.4% — below actionable threshold given system-wide total market distrust
Risk Factors
- No informational edge identified to justify a directional bet
- Both offenses/pitching roughly even — high game-script variance
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 53.2%
-10.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-10.1 pts
Total
7.0
+7.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.