FINAL: TOR 7 — SEA 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TOR 2.9 - SEA 3.6 (SEA at 51.1% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.5 total runs.
TOR
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SEA
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORSEA
+1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SEA W4TOR W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.9% (3,628 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
TOR
135
Projected
TOR 2.9 — SEA 3.6
Actual
TOR 7 — SEA 0
Pick Results
SEA @ TOR F5 UNDER 4.5f5WIN+0.42u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%96 mph19% whiff
SL24%87 mph33% whiff
FS14%82 mph40% whiff
Max Scherzer R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%93 mph12% whiff
SL19%86 mph19% whiff
CH16%84 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
71°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.037 Total: 1.020
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.82ERA
4.00FIP
9.01K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
TOR
3.59ERA
4.12FIP
8.40K/9
3.86BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-23.9% EV
-110
NRFI NRFI
+15.0% EV
-114
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+14.9% EV
-110
F5 UNDER 4.5
+14.2% EV
-125
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.0% EV
+116
F5_ML AWAY
-5.4% EV
-159
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.0 runs
45.9% win
TOR F5
1.6 runs
33.6% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
64.4%
YRFI
35.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.67
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
80%
Over 1.5 HR
47%
No HR
20%
Dominic Canzone SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.230 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Max Scherzer | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Kazuma Okamoto TOR27.2%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Logan Gilbert | Park: 1.01x
Cal Raleigh SEA26.9%
ISO: 0.201 | Barrel: 10.4% | vs Max Scherzer | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Logan Gilbert
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Max Scherzer
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Emerson Hancock SPDAY-TO-DAY
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Colt Emerson SS10-DAY-IL
Luke Raley RF60-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Josh Smith 2B10-DAY-IL
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
Jonatan Clase LF60-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL +0
Model favors SEA (51.1%) largely on Logan Gilbert's clear pitcher advantage over Max Scherzer, but the market's -131 TOR pricing plus historically weak away-underdog performance means the ML angle should be skipped in favor of the total.
Key Factors
- ERA gap: Gilbert 3.63 vs Scherzer 7.58 = 3.95-run swing, largest raw ERA gap on the slate
- Away underdog ML historically weak: a supportive track record (30-day, n=16) even with pitcher edges present
- NRFI edge 15.0% (61.1% model) and UNDER 8.0 edge 14.9% (60.2% model) are cleaner, historically well-supported-aligned plays
- Rogers Centre retractable roof neutral park factor (1.0), no weather tailwind either direction
- Both bullpens comparable: TOR 3.59 ERA vs SEA 3.82 ERA — not a differentiator
Risk Factors
- Scherzer name/pedigree may cause market mispricing to persist or even worsen against model — untestable without further line movement data
- Away dog ML in 5-10% edge/50-55% prob historically mixed shows only a supportive track record historically
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 51.1%
-1.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-1.0 pts
Total
8.0
+14.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.