SEA vs TOR — August 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation has completed 10,000 iterations for this matchup. The market spread is 1.5 with a total of 8.0. Projected scores and win probabilities are shown below; the model edge, recommended pick and Kelly unit sizing are premium.
TOR
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SEA
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORSEA
+1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%96 mph19% whiff
SL24%87 mph33% whiff
FS14%82 mph40% whiff
Max Scherzer R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%93 mph12% whiff
SL19%86 mph19% whiff
CH16%84 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
71°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.037 Total: 1.020
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.82ERA
4.00FIP
9.01K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
TOR
3.59ERA
4.12FIP
8.40K/9
3.86BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.0 runs
45.9% win
TOR F5
1.6 runs
33.6% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
64.4%
YRFI
35.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.67
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Emerson Hancock SPDAY-TO-DAY
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Colt Emerson SS10-DAY-IL
Luke Raley RF60-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Josh Smith 2B10-DAY-IL
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
Jonatan Clase LF60-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.