MIA vs WSH prediction for August 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 4.2 - MIA 4.2. WSH is favored with a 54.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
WSH
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
MIA
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHMIA
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.1% (3,503 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
246
WSH
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Janson Junk R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%94 mph9% whiff
SL20%86 mph13% whiff
CH18%87 mph21% whiff
Andrew Alvarez L
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CU31%83 mph33% whiff
FF28%92 mph9% whiff
SL22%84 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
84°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.078 Total: 1.043
10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
4.21ERA
3.84FIP
9.86K/9
4.22BB/9
1.29WHIP
WSH
5.53ERA
5.21FIP
9.05K/9
4.88BB/9
1.57WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.1 runs
39.0% win
WSH F5
2.3 runs
43.7% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
55.5%
YRFI
44.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP60-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
WSH8 injured
James Wood RF10-DAY-IL
Cade Cavalli SPDAY-TO-DAY
Connelly Early SP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.