BOS vs NYY prediction for August 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 3.0 - BOS 3.2. NYY is favored with a 52.0% win probability. NYY wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.2 total runs.
NYY
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
BOS
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYBOS
+1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.4% (3,503 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
135
NYY
135
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ranger Suarez L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI23%90 mph11% whiff
FF22%92 mph14% whiff
FC20%88 mph14% whiff
Will Warren R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%94 mph20% whiff
SI26%93 mph16% whiff
ST20%84 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
79°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.058 Total: 1.032
7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.19ERA
3.37FIP
9.52K/9
3.02BB/9
1.21WHIP
NYY
3.09ERA
3.98FIP
8.50K/9
3.55BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
1.7 runs
40.4% win
NYY F5
1.6 runs
37.0% win
F5 Total
3.2
NRFI
67.5%
YRFI
32.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.62
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Curtis Mead 3B10-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Masataka Yoshida DH10-DAY-IL
Justin Slaten RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY8 injured
George Lombard Jr. SSDAY-TO-DAY
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan McMahon 3B10-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP15-DAY-IL
Kervin Castro RP60-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.