FINAL: TB 1 — CWS 9. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TB 3.1 - CWS 3.1 (TB at 51.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.2 total runs.
TB
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CWS
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBCWS
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CWSTB W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.3% (3,135 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
135
TB
135
Projected
TB 3.1 — CWS 3.1
Actual
TB 1 — CWS 9
Pick Results
CWS @ TB NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Anthony Kay L
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF24%96 mph16% whiff
ST22%83 mph36% whiff
SI18%95 mph16% whiff
Griffin Jax R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST25%88 mph34% whiff
CH23%91 mph40% whiff
SI21%96 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
84°F10 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
3.78ERA
4.09FIP
9.14K/9
4.48BB/9
1.34WHIP
TB
3.75ERA
3.99FIP
9.00K/9
3.19BB/9
1.18WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-17.4% EV
-106
F5_ML HOME
-12.3% EV
-156
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-11.8% EV
+140
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+7.9% EV
-114
F5 UNDER 3.5
+7.3% EV
+110
ML HOME
-6.3% EV
-147
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
1.7 runs
38.2% win
TB F5
1.8 runs
41.3% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
60.5%
YRFI
39.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.76
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
83%
Over 1.5 HR
53%
No HR
17%
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.359 | Barrel: 17.5% | vs Griffin Jax | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Ryan Vilade TB30.0%
ISO: 0.245 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Anthony Kay | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.238 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs Anthony Kay | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Anthony Kay
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Griffin Jax
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
TB8 injured
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 51.6%
-11.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-11.8 pts
Total
7.5
+7.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.