FINAL: HOU 7 — TEX 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected HOU 3.9 - TEX 3.9 (HOU at 51.1% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
HOU
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TEX
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUTEX
-1.5
Run Line (HOU)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TEX W5HOU
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.3% (3,135 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
246
HOU
246
Projected
HOU 3.9 — TEX 3.9
Actual
HOU 7 — TEX 3
Pick Results
TEX @ HOU F5 UNDER 4.5f5LOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kumar Rocker R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL38%83 mph40% whiff
SI29%94 mph8% whiff
FC15%90 mph18% whiff
Peter Lambert R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF30%94 mph19% whiff
CH23%87 mph34% whiff
SL15%86 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Daikin Park
92°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.024 Total: 1.011
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
4.28ERA
4.31FIP
8.23K/9
3.54BB/9
1.33WHIP
HOU
3.51ERA
4.11FIP
9.22K/9
3.76BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-12.7% EV
-118
F5_ML HOME
-12.3% EV
-135
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-7.1% EV
+152
F5 UNDER 4.5
+5.8% EV
-102
ML HOME
-4.5% EV
-128
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+3.5% EV
-104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
2.2 runs
42.3% win
HOU F5
2.2 runs
40.6% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
54.8%
YRFI
45.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.93
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
66%
No HR
10%
Corey Seager TEX30.0%
ISO: 0.230 | Barrel: 11.0% | vs Peter Lambert | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Joc Pederson TEX30.0%
ISO: 0.254 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Peter Lambert | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.335 | Barrel: 18.2% | vs Kumar Rocker | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kumar Rocker
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Peter Lambert
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Cody Bradford SP60-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Jakob Junis RP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Jose Corniell RP60-DAY-IL
Danny Jansen C60-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU5 injured
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Spencer Arrighetti SP15-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF10-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 51.1%
-7.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-7.1 pts
Total
8.5
+3.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.