PHI vs BAL prediction for August 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 3.5 - PHI 3.6. BAL is favored with a 50.3% win probability. BAL wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
BAL
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
PHI
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALPHI
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.3% (3,135 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
BAL
245
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zack Wheeler R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%95 mph24% whiff
FS16%87 mph47% whiff
SI15%95 mph8% whiff
Kyle Bradish R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI34%95 mph9% whiff
SL26%87 mph33% whiff
CU22%85 mph40% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
86°F13 mph wind
HR: 1.056 Total: 1.030
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.74ERA
3.94FIP
10.56K/9
3.67BB/9
1.42WHIP
BAL
3.95ERA
3.99FIP
8.56K/9
3.44BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.0 runs
42.2% win
BAL F5
1.9 runs
38.7% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
60.0%
YRFI
40.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.80
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PHI6 injured
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Lou Trivino RP15-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
BAL8 injured
Chris Bassitt SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Adley Rutschman C10-DAY-IL
Samuel Basallo C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.