PIT vs CIN prediction for August 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CIN 3.8 - PIT 4.7. PIT is favored with a 54.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.5 total runs.
CIN
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
PIT
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINPIT
-1.5
Run Line (CIN)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.8% (3,135 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
357
CIN
246
Projected
CIN 3.8 — PIT 4.7
Actual
CIN 10 — PIT 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Mitch Keller R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%93 mph14% whiff
SI18%92 mph11% whiff
ST16%82 mph24% whiff
Chase Burns R
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF57%98 mph15% whiff
SL38%90 mph49% whiff
CH6%90 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
77°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.050 Total: 1.026
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.40ERA
4.52FIP
9.17K/9
4.41BB/9
1.42WHIP
CIN
4.23ERA
5.00FIP
8.37K/9
4.96BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
2.6 runs
48.9% win
CIN F5
2.0 runs
34.5% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
55.0%
YRFI
45.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.96
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PIT5 injured
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Evan Sisk RP15-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF60-DAY-IL
Chris Devenski RP60-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
CIN6 injured
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
Tony Santillan RP15-DAY-IL
Nick Lodolo SP15-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF10-DAY-IL
Spencer Steer 1B10-DAY-IL
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.