NYY vs CHC prediction for August 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 3.4 - NYY 3.8. NYY is favored with a 50.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
CHC
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
NYY
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCNYY
+1.5
Run Line (CHC)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.3% (3,135 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
246
CHC
135
Projected
CHC 3.4 — NYY 3.8
Actual
CHC 1 — NYY 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gerrit Cole R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%97 mph21% whiff
SL19%90 mph26% whiff
CH14%86 mph20% whiff
Colin Rea R
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%94 mph13% whiff
CH18%88 mph24% whiff
SL11%86 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
72°F15 mph wind
HR: 0.966 Total: 0.978
thin air, 13mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.00ERA
3.74FIP
8.60K/9
3.44BB/9
1.20WHIP
CHC
4.33ERA
4.76FIP
8.35K/9
3.73BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.1 runs
44.1% win
CHC F5
1.9 runs
37.7% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
60.3%
YRFI
39.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.76
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYY5 injured
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
Cody Bellinger LF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
CHC8 injured
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Hoby Milner RP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.