MIA vs NYM prediction for August 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 2.4 - MIA 4.8. MIA is favored with a 64.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
NYM
2.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
MIA
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMMIA
+1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.6% (3,135 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
357
NYM
024
Projected
NYM 2.4 — MIA 4.8
Actual
NYM 0 — MIA 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sandy Alcantara R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI26%97 mph9% whiff
CH21%91 mph27% whiff
FF19%98 mph17% whiff
Robert Stock R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC44%89 mph11% whiff
SI32%94 mph20% whiff
FF10%95 mph0% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
83°F16 mph wind
HR: 1.085 Total: 1.047
thin air, 11mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
4.10ERA
3.68FIP
9.59K/9
3.96BB/9
1.21WHIP
NYM
3.64ERA
3.87FIP
9.32K/9
3.71BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.9 runs
62.4% win
NYM F5
1.2 runs
21.5% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
62.8%
YRFI
37.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.79
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Michael Petersen RPDAY-TO-DAY
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Josh Ekness RP60-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Juan Soto LF10-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.