DET vs CWS prediction for September 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 4.3 - DET 4.7. DET is favored with a 52.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
CWS
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
DET
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSDET
-1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
357
CWS
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Troy Melton R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%96 mph16% whiff
FC22%92 mph18% whiff
SL17%87 mph33% whiff
Davis Martin R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%94 mph20% whiff
SI19%93 mph6% whiff
CH14%90 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Rate Field
66°F16 mph wind
HR: 1.043 Total: 1.023
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.10ERA
4.49FIP
8.39K/9
4.06BB/9
1.28WHIP
CWS
3.76ERA
4.28FIP
9.23K/9
4.49BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.6 runs
45.4% win
CWS F5
2.3 runs
39.0% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
53.0%
YRFI
47.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Kyle Finnegan RP15-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Matt Vierling CF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.