WSH vs STL prediction for September 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 5.1 - WSH 4.0. STL is favored with a 67.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.1 total runs.
STL
5.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
WSH
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLWSH
-1.5
Run Line (STL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 73.1% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
246
STL
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jake Irvin R
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%93 mph20% whiff
CU23%78 mph34% whiff
SI19%92 mph8% whiff
Quinn Mathews L
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%94 mph20% whiff
SL23%85 mph25% whiff
CH16%83 mph42% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
91°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.067 Total: 1.035
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
5.65ERA
5.22FIP
8.87K/9
4.89BB/9
1.56WHIP
STL
4.51ERA
4.26FIP
8.53K/9
4.26BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.2 runs
32.4% win
STL F5
3.1 runs
53.7% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
49.8%
YRFI
50.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.14
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Connelly Early SP60-DAY-IL
Matt Waldron RP60-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C60-DAY-IL
Orlando Ribalta RP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
PJ Poulin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL5 injured
Blaze Jordan 3B10-DAY-IL
Joshua Baez LF10-DAY-IL
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.