BOS vs TB prediction for September 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 5.7 - BOS 4.6. TB is favored with a 66.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 10.3 total runs.
TB
5.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
BOS
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBBOS
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 73.0% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
357
TB
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Patrick Sandoval L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH26%84 mph40% whiff
SL22%87 mph23% whiff
FF22%94 mph12% whiff
Griffin Jax R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST25%88 mph32% whiff
CH23%91 mph39% whiff
SI22%95 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
84°F6 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.05ERA
3.30FIP
9.81K/9
3.11BB/9
1.22WHIP
TB
3.38ERA
3.76FIP
8.97K/9
2.65BB/9
1.11WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.4 runs
29.9% win
TB F5
3.7 runs
57.6% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
46.8%
YRFI
53.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.24
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Willson Contreras 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Aroldis Chapman RPDAY-TO-DAY
Johan Oviedo SP60-DAY-IL
Ceddanne Rafaela CF10-DAY-IL
Tyron Guerrero RP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Garrett Cleavinger RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
Tyler Wells RP15-DAY-IL
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.