PHI vs NYM prediction for September 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 4.0 - PHI 4.3. PHI is favored with a 52.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
NYM
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
PHI
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMPHI
+1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.6% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
NYM
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cristopher Sánchez L
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI44%95 mph10% whiff
CH37%87 mph43% whiff
SL19%86 mph41% whiff
Jonah Tong R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF43%95 mph22% whiff
CH28%87 mph32% whiff
FC20%91 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
67°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.033 Total: 1.018
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.46ERA
3.98FIP
10.10K/9
3.52BB/9
1.37WHIP
NYM
4.42ERA
4.29FIP
9.58K/9
3.73BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.3 runs
43.2% win
NYM F5
2.2 runs
39.9% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
56.4%
YRFI
43.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PHI7 injured
Jonathan Bowlan RPDAY-TO-DAY
Caleb Kilian RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Luzardo SP15-DAY-IL
Felix Reyes LF60-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
+1 more
NYM7 injured
Jared Young 1B7-DAY IL
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Duarte RP15-DAY-IL
Robert Stock RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
More Projections Today
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.