MLB Baseball

OAK vs CLE Prediction

September 20, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

OAK vs CLE prediction for September 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 5.2 - OAK 3.7. CLE is favored with a 70.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.

CLE
5.2
Projected Score
VS O/U 7.5
OAK
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
70.1%
29.9%
CLEOAK
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 73.5% (3,908 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

OAK
246
CLE
357

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Jack Perkins R
OAK
FF30% · 96
ST28% · 86
CH18% · 89
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF30%96 mph16% whiff
ST28%86 mph36% whiff
CH18%89 mph36% whiff
Gavin Williams R
CLE
ST28% · 88
FF27% · 98
CU22% · 83
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST28%88 mph42% whiff
FF27%98 mph27% whiff
CU22%83 mph30% whiff

Weather Impact

Progressive Field
68°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.003 Total: 0.999
thin air, 6mph in

Bullpen Comparison

OAK
4.96ERA
4.38FIP
9.49K/9
4.62BB/9
1.51WHIP
CLE
3.38ERA
3.71FIP
10.11K/9
3.77BB/9
1.22WHIP

Betting Edges

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Edge Analysis
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First 5 Innings & NRFI

OAK F5
2.0 runs
28.7% win
CLE F5
3.2 runs
57.4% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
52.6%
YRFI
47.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.07

HR Spotlight

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Home Run Analysis
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Injury Report

OAK8 injured
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B60-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP60-DAY-IL
Brent Rooker DH60-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B60-DAY-IL
Gage Jump SP15-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE3 injured
Colin Holderman RP15-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL

AI Intelligence Analysis

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Edge Analysis

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Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.

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