TOR vs TEX prediction for September 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 3.8 - TOR 3.6. TEX is favored with a 55.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
TEX
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TOR
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXTOR
-1.5
Run Line (TEX)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.3% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
246
TEX
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Spencer Miles R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI45%96 mph11% whiff
CU24%81 mph24% whiff
SL16%87 mph18% whiff
Jacob deGrom R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%97 mph23% whiff
SL35%91 mph38% whiff
CH13%90 mph46% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
95°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.082 Total: 1.043
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.36ERA
3.99FIP
8.54K/9
3.82BB/9
1.26WHIP
TEX
4.28ERA
4.46FIP
8.48K/9
3.74BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
1.9 runs
37.4% win
TEX F5
2.1 runs
44.1% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
59.3%
YRFI
40.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Rudy Martin Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Cody Ponce SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Cal Quantrill RPDAY-TO-DAY
Michel Otanez RP15-DAY-IL
Joc Pederson DHDAY-TO-DAY
Cole Winn RP60-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
MacKenzie Gore SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.