DET vs SF prediction for August 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 3.5 - DET 4.5. DET is favored with a 55.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
SF
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
DET
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFDET
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.9% (3,199 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
346
SF
245
Projected
SF 3.5 — DET 4.5
Actual
SF 5 — DET 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jackson Jobe R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%96 mph13% whiff
SL30%89 mph23% whiff
CH17%85 mph44% whiff
Landen Roupp R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI35%93 mph8% whiff
CU26%77 mph34% whiff
CH20%87 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
61°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.066 Total: 1.039
12mph out
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.43ERA
4.59FIP
8.40K/9
4.39BB/9
1.38WHIP
SF
4.55ERA
4.63FIP
7.14K/9
4.35BB/9
1.46WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.4 runs
46.1% win
SF F5
1.9 runs
35.6% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
60.9%
YRFI
39.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.79
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Vierling CF10-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto RF10-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
With Jackson Jobe's Bayesian ERA missing from our pitcher profile data, we cannot properly validate the core SP-mismatch dimension for this game, and the ML/total edges are trivial regardless - flag DATA_INTEGRITY and pass.
Key Factors
- Jackson Jobe's (away, DET) Bayesian ERA reads as "N/A" in our pitcher profile tool despite having a k_rate/pitch mix listed - a data integrity gap for today's away starter
- Roupp (home, SF) has a modest 4.69 ERA - no standout SP edge even setting aside the Jobe data gap
- Oracle Park wind is blowing OUT at 11.7mph today (atypical vs its usual marine-layer suppression) - total_mult 1.039, a real park/weather anomaly worth flagging for total bettors even though we're not recommending a total play here
- ML edges are trivial in both directions (-1.7% home, -2.0% away) - no real value regardless of the data gap
- NRFI edge 7.5%, just under our 8% actionable threshold
Risk Factors
- Missing ERA data for a starting pitcher is a hard data integrity flag - we cannot properly validate the SP mismatch dimension for this game
- Small trivial edges everywhere compound the low-confidence read
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.