HOU vs CWS prediction for July 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 4.8 - HOU 5.1. CWS is favored with a 50.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
CWS
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
HOU
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSHOU
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.4% (3,016 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
357
CWS
357
Projected
CWS 4.8 — HOU 5.1
Actual
CWS 1 — HOU 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Hunter Brown R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%96 mph21% whiff
SI28%96 mph14% whiff
KC21%83 mph34% whiff
Sean Burke R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF38%95 mph22% whiff
KC21%80 mph24% whiff
SL18%87 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Rate Field
82°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.050 Total: 1.026
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
4.13ERA
4.29FIP
8.50K/9
4.68BB/9
1.32WHIP
CWS
4.29ERA
4.67FIP
8.64K/9
4.97BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.6 runs
41.7% win
CWS F5
2.8 runs
44.7% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
49.8%
YRFI
50.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.12
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
HOU6 injured
Spencer Arrighetti SP15-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF10-DAY-IL
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Hayden Wesneski SP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN
Sean Burke (HOU, B grade, 9.0 K/9, solid arm) vs Hunter Brown (CWS, C+, 15.0 K/9 elite K but wild — C-grade command) presents K/control tradeoff; warm 81.8F, thin air (density 1679), HR mult 1.05 suggest slight over lean; model 9.85 total vs 8.5 market = 1.35 edge (7.6% edge prob), historical support historical WR 50.1%.
Key Factors
- Brown 15.0 K/9 elite but C-command (wild) suggests unpredictable game
- Burke 9.0 K/9 solid arm with good control (B grade) — command advantage HOU
- Temperature 81.8F warm (adds 0.3 runs), HR mult 1.05, thin air (1679 density) — slight over lean (~0.5 run add)
- Model 9.85 vs market 8.5 = 1.35 run gap (7.6% edge) — market under-valuing environmental scoring
- historical support WR 50.1% on totals — marginal expected value but positive direction
Risk Factors
- Hunter Brown's 15.0 K/9 with C-command suggests volatility — could be 0 ER or 4 ER outing
- 7.6% edge is small; historical support historical WR only 50.1%
- CWS bullpen 4.29 ERA, HOU 4.13 ERA — near-equivalent relief
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.