HOU vs TEX prediction for July 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 5.4 - HOU 5.4. TEX is favored with a 50.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.8 total runs.
TEX
5.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
HOU
5.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXHOU
+1.5
Run Line (TEX)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.4% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
357
TEX
357
Projected
TEX 5.4 — HOU 5.4
Actual
TEX 3 — HOU 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Peter Lambert R
HOU
FF32%94 mph18% whiff
CH22%87 mph36% whiff
SL16%86 mph25% whiff
Kumar Rocker R
TEX
SL38%83 mph39% whiff
SI31%94 mph9% whiff
FC14%90 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
95°F12 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.028 Total: 1.012
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
4.13ERA
4.29FIP
8.50K/9
4.68BB/9
1.32WHIP
TEX
3.60ERA
4.14FIP
7.63K/9
3.27BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-33.0% EV
-208
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-21.2% EV
-112
F5 OVER 4.5
+17.0% EV
-120
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+12.5% EV
-108
F5_ML AWAY
-8.8% EV
-110
ML HOME
-5.1% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
3.1 runs
41.5% win
TEX F5
3.2 runs
46.5% win
F5 Total
6.3
NRFI
43.5%
YRFI
56.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.32
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.6
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
85%
No HR
4%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.323 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Kumar Rocker | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Joc Pederson TEX29.7%
ISO: 0.188 | Barrel: 9.4% | vs Peter Lambert | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Christian Walker HOU27.5%
ISO: 0.255 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Kumar Rocker | Park: 1.02x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Peter Lambert
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Kumar Rocker
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU7 injured
Lance McCullers Jr. SP15-DAY-IL
Ronel Blanco SP60-DAY-IL
Bennett Sousa RP60-DAY-IL
Hayden Wesneski SP60-DAY-IL
Kai-Wei Teng RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
TEX8 injured
Jacob deGrom SPDAY-TO-DAY
Cody Bradford SP60-DAY-IL
Danny Jansen C10-DAY-IL
Jakob Junis RP15-DAY-IL
Jalen Beeks RP15-DAY-IL
Corey Seager SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=329)
Model projects 10.84 total in +94.7°F extreme heat, yet OVER edge is only +12.5% in neutral YELLOW zone (50.1% WR); F5 OVER at +17.0% is cleaner; extreme heat weather should be a bigger edge, suggesting model underweighting environmental run inflation.
Key Factors
- Extreme heat: 94.7°F is top-decile environmental run boost — should add 1.0+ runs
- Market discount: 8.5 total appears to ignore heat magnitude
- OVER edge modest: +12.5% (model 58.3% vs market 45.8%) in neutral YELLOW zone
- F5 OVER cleaner: +17.0% (63.9% model) but still in consideration range
- Pitchers matched: Both B- grade, no dramatic quality gap
Risk Factors
- High-edge totals historically weak: Any edge >15% on totals is a caution flag
- Wind slightly in: -4.9 mph partially offsets heat advantage
- Market respected by sharp money: 8.5 may reflect consensus despite appearing low
WEATHER IMPACTHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TEX 50.8%
-33.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-33.0 pts
Total
8.5
+12.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →