KC vs LAA prediction for August 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAA 2.8 - KC 2.9. KC is favored with a 50.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 5.7 total runs.
LAA
2.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
KC
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAAKC
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.7% (3,277 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
135
LAA
135
Projected
LAA 2.8 — KC 2.9
Actual
LAA 6 — KC 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Randy Dobnak R
KC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI40%92 mph4% whiff
ST27%82 mph36% whiff
CH22%85 mph25% whiff
Reid Detmers L
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%94 mph18% whiff
SL32%86 mph33% whiff
CU11%72 mph39% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
76°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.070 Total: 1.039
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.85ERA
5.08FIP
7.92K/9
4.60BB/9
1.48WHIP
LAA
3.95ERA
4.19FIP
9.33K/9
3.98BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
1.4 runs
38.3% win
LAA F5
1.4 runs
37.3% win
F5 Total
2.9
NRFI
70.0%
YRFI
29.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.53
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Salvador Perez DHDAY-TO-DAY
Maikel Garcia 3B10-DAY-IL
Tony Gonsolin SP15-DAY-IL
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B10-DAY-IL
Luinder Avila SP60-DAY-IL
Nick Mears RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAA8 injured
Oswald Peraza 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Sam Bachman RP15-DAY-IL
Sebastian Rivero C10-DAY-IL
Shaun Anderson RP15-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.