FINAL: BAL 5 — LAA 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected BAL 3.5 - LAA 3.0 (BAL at 55.4% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.5 total runs.
BAL
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
LAA
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALLAA
-1.5
Run Line (BAL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
LAA L5BAL
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.8% (3,172 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
135
BAL
245
Projected
BAL 3.5 — LAA 3.0
Actual
BAL 5 — LAA 2
Pick Results
LAA @ BAL NRFInrfiWIN+0.41u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Reid Detmers L
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%94 mph18% whiff
SL32%86 mph33% whiff
CU11%72 mph38% whiff
Trevor Rogers L
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%94 mph21% whiff
CH23%87 mph22% whiff
ST13%78 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
82°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.036 Total: 1.019
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
3.75ERA
4.41FIP
9.76K/9
4.50BB/9
1.30WHIP
BAL
4.40ERA
4.02FIP
8.61K/9
3.73BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-21.1% EV
-105
F5 UNDER 4.5
+12.5% EV
-130
F5_ML AWAY
-12.4% EV
+102
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+11.3% EV
-115
NRFI NRFI
+5.2% EV
-122
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-4.3% EV
-175
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
1.5 runs
33.7% win
BAL F5
2.0 runs
46.1% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
63.9%
YRFI
36.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.69
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
59%
No HR
14%
Mike Trout LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.178 | Barrel: 11.8% | vs Trevor Rogers | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pete Alonso BAL28.4%
ISO: 0.162 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Reid Detmers | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Coby Mayo BAL28.3%
ISO: 0.414 | Barrel: 12.4% | vs Reid Detmers | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Reid Detmers
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Trevor Rogers
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA7 injured
Sam Bachman RP15-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Sebastian Rivero C10-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Stephenson RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
BAL8 injured
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Samuel Basallo C10-DAY-IL
Chris Bassitt SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
LAA @ BAL under 8.0 shows 11.3% edge (model 59.5% vs market 48.7% implied) — tied for slate's best under edge; Trevor Rogers (4.61 ERA) vs Reid Detmers (4.35 ERA) are similar mediocrity, but F5 under edge 12.5% (63.5% model) is the real signal; both teams low-scoring; neutral ballpark; market over-pricing run inflation.
Key Factors
- F5 under edge 12.5% (model 63.5%, market 37%) — one of slate's cleanest plays; neither team prolific early
- Total under edge 11.3% (model 59.5% vs market 48.7%) — market mispricing run environment by ~1.3 runs
- Rogers (4.61 ERA, B- overall) vs Detmers (4.35 ERA, B overall) nearly identical; park neutral; LAA has Mike Trout (30% HR prob) but Detmers throwing elite SL (0.32 mix) limits damage
- BAL bullpen above-average (4.4 ERA) vs LAA (3.75 ERA) — neither has weak pen edge
Risk Factors
- F5 market only giving 37% probability on under despite model 63.5% — sharp may know something (lineup health); confirm no day-to-day injuries
- LAA @ BAL late game (10:36 PM) — fatigue after cross-country travel; could support under but also backs opposite argument (sluggish swings)
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 55.4%
-3.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-3.9 pts
Total
8.0
+11.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.