FINAL: CLE 5 — NYM 6. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CLE 3.6 - NYM 2.9 (CLE at 56.2% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.5 total runs.
CLE
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYM
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLENYM
+1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYMCLE L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.1% (3,172 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
135
CLE
246
Projected
CLE 3.6 — NYM 2.9
Actual
CLE 5 — NYM 6
Pick Results
NYM @ CLE NRFInrfiWIN+0.44u
CLE F5 MLf5_mlPUSH+0.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Christian Scott R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF50%95 mph25% whiff
ST22%81 mph30% whiff
FC17%90 mph20% whiff
Tanner Bibee R
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC25%86 mph31% whiff
SI23%93 mph14% whiff
FF22%94 mph13% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
82°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.999 Total: 0.997
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.49ERA
4.36FIP
9.28K/9
4.11BB/9
1.39WHIP
CLE
3.60ERA
3.90FIP
9.84K/9
3.83BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-17.7% EV
-118
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-16.5% EV
-115
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-16.2% EV
+152
F5 UNDER 4.5
+8.8% EV
-145
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+7.9% EV
-105
F5_ML HOME
+7.7% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
1.5 runs
33.7% win
CLE F5
2.0 runs
46.1% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
65.8%
YRFI
34.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.66
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
15%
Chase DeLauter CLE30.0%
ISO: 0.174 | Barrel: 8.3% | vs Christian Scott | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Jared Young NYM25.9%
ISO: 0.191 | Barrel: 8.4% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Francisco Alvarez NYM24.5%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 9.1% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Christian Scott
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Tanner Bibee
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM7 injured
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Austin Warren RP15-DAY-IL
Juan Soto LF10-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
CLE2 injured
Jose Ramirez 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
NYM @ CLE under 7.5 shows 7.9% edge (model 55.3% vs market 47.4%) and F5 under 8.8% edge (64.4% model) — CLE's Tanner Bibee (4.11 ERA, B- stuff) vs NYM's Christian Scott (3.23 ERA, B stuff) creates pitcher quality mismatch (Scott advantage) AGAINST home favorite, yet both teams' recent run scoring is mediocre; market at 7.5 fair but F5 under is outlier value.
Key Factors
- F5 under edge 8.8% (model 64.4%) — one of slate's strongest early-inning signals; both teams weak early-game hitters
- SP profile: Scott (3.23 ERA, 0.29 K-rate, B-grade stuff) > Bibee (4.11 ERA, 0.18 K-rate, B- stuff) — NYM has pitcher edge despite road status
- NRFI 2.5% edge (model 61.0%) — first inning under-heavy (0.66 avg runs) signals both starters' control advantage early
- Progressive Field 0.997 multiplier (wind 8mph in = -0.8% runs) — suppresses scoring vs neutral; market ignored wind factor
Risk Factors
- NYM away team but pitcher-heavy edge — historically weak bias (a supportive track record away ML) suggests market respect is already factored
- Jose Ramirez (CLE 3B) DAY-TO-DAY hand — if out, removes key hitter; confirm lineup status before bet
- Juan Soto (NYM LF) 10-day IL (calf) — impacts lineup composition but not necessarily starting pitcher analysis
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 56.2%
+2.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+2.8 pts
Total
7.5
+7.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.