FINAL: NYY 1 — STL 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYY 3.5 - STL 2.7 (NYY at 57.5% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.2 total runs.
NYY
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
STL
2.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYSTL
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.4% (3,172 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
135
NYY
245
Projected
NYY 3.5 — STL 2.7
Actual
NYY 1 — STL 3
Pick Results
STL @ NYY NRFInrfiWIN+0.44u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andre Pallante R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF30%95 mph12% whiff
SL30%88 mph30% whiff
SI19%95 mph9% whiff
Will Warren R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF38%94 mph20% whiff
SI26%93 mph17% whiff
ST20%84 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
78°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.012 Total: 1.005
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.39ERA
4.34FIP
8.01K/9
4.14BB/9
1.37WHIP
NYY
2.91ERA
3.83FIP
8.56K/9
3.51BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-22.7% EV
-105
F5 UNDER 4.5
+22.0% EV
-108
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+12.8% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-8.4% EV
+120
NRFI NRFI
+6.3% EV
-114
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-4.6% EV
-161
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
1.4 runs
32.2% win
NYY F5
1.9 runs
45.9% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
63.3%
YRFI
36.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.65
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
82%
Over 1.5 HR
51%
No HR
18%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.328 | Barrel: 16.7% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Alec Burleson STL23.6%
ISO: 0.234 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Will Warren | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Heliot Ramos NYY22.0%
ISO: 0.146 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 1.10x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Andre Pallante
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Will Warren
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL3 injured
Jordan Walker RFDAY-TO-DAY
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
NYY5 injured
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Cody Bellinger LF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
STL @ NYY under 8.5 shows 12.8% edge (model 60.3% vs market 39.7%) — strong under edge; Will Warren (NYY, 4.47 ERA, B- stuff) vs Andre Pallante (STL, 4.02 ERA, B- stuff) similar mediocrities; F5 under edge 22.0% (63.2% model) is ELITE signal; Yankee Stadium park neutral; Aaron Judge out (ribs) removes power; NRFI 6.3% edge corroborates low-run theme.
Key Factors
- F5 under edge 22.0% (model 63.2% vs market 28%) — ELITE early-inning signal; Warren and Pallante both weak command early
- Total under edge 12.8%: Model 60.3% vs market 39.7% — market pricing 8.5 as if both are solid starters (Warren 4.47, Pallante 4.02 both below-average)
- Aaron Judge (NYY RF) OUT 60-day IL (ribs) — ~3-4 run power swing; Ben Rice (30% HR prob) fills but not same caliber
- Yankee Stadium park factor 1.01 (neutral wind -2.2mph head); no weather-driven scoring inflation
Risk Factors
- 12.8% edge on total triggers HIGH_EDGE_WARNING — calibration history shows high edges underperform (38-a supportive track record range)
- STL recent form unclear; if team playing well, might generate more runs than model projects
- NYY bullpen elite (2.91 ERA) — if game close late, NYY bullpen advantage could suppress late runs (actually supports under)
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 57.5%
-4.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-4.6 pts
Total
8.5
+12.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.