FINAL: CIN 3 — OAK 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CIN 4.5 - OAK 3.1 (CIN at 62.3% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
CIN
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
OAK
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINOAK
-1.5
Run Line (CIN)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
OAK L5CIN L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.6% (3,172 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
135
CIN
346
Projected
CIN 4.5 — OAK 3.1
Actual
CIN 3 — OAK 2
Pick Results
OAK @ CIN NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jacob Lopez L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%90 mph18% whiff
SL31%77 mph26% whiff
FC20%86 mph24% whiff
Rhett Lowder R
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI30%93 mph6% whiff
SL27%85 mph34% whiff
FF21%93 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
90°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.067 Total: 1.035
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.94ERA
4.35FIP
9.72K/9
4.38BB/9
1.49WHIP
CIN
4.20ERA
4.99FIP
8.41K/9
4.96BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-20.8% EV
-114
F5_ML AWAY
-19.7% EV
+120
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+11.7% EV
-108
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-9.1% EV
-154
ML AWAY
-5.2% EV
+138
F5_ML HOME
+4.8% EV
-154
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
1.5 runs
28.2% win
CIN F5
2.5 runs
53.5% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
56.5%
YRFI
43.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.87
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
12%
Elly De La Cruz CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.350 | Barrel: 11.2% | vs Jacob Lopez | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Sal Stewart CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.232 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Jacob Lopez | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Tyler Soderstrom OAK25.6%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 11.0% | vs Rhett Lowder | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jacob Lopez
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Rhett Lowder
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK8 injured
Zack Gelof 3B10-DAY-IL
Jeffrey Springs SP15-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B10-DAY-IL
Mark Leiter Jr. RP60-DAY-IL
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CIN6 injured
Blake Dunn CF10-DAY-IL
Nick Lodolo SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
Tony Santillan RP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Steer 1B10-DAY-IL
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
OAK @ CIN under 9.5 shows 11.7% edge (model 57.9% vs market 46.1%) — slate's best under edge; Rhett Lowder (CIN, 5.85 ERA, mediocre) vs Jacob Lopez (OAK, 6.25 ERA, worse), but CIN home field + great American's park factor 1.08 (+8% HR) plus Rhett's K-rate low (0.19) creates run suppression; F5 under 1.0% less compelling but NRFI 3.1% edge qualifies.
Key Factors
- Total under edge 11.7% (model 57.9% vs market 46.1%) — market is -20 implied 46.1% under, completely undervaluing both starters being below-average
- Lowder (5.85 ERA, C-grade stuff, 0.19 K-rate) and Lopez (6.25 ERA, C+ stuff, 0.19 K-rate) are both pedestrian — suggests under environment despite both teams' offensive tiers
- Great American park factor +1.08 for HRs; 89.8°F with 4.2mph tailwind neutral — wind doesn't drive excess scoring today
- NRFI 3.1% edge (model 51.5%) aligns; both starters struggle with command (0.09+ BB rate), suggesting early runs less likely
Risk Factors
- OAK is historically terrible team (4.94 bullpen ERA); if Lowder gets pulled early, CIN bullpen (4.2 ERA) takes over — still mediocre
- Great American is notoriously high-scoring park; +8% HR factor might be understated if conditions perfect
- Market setting 9.5 feels like consensus under-heavy line — confirm sharp action isn't fading unders
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CIN 62.3%
+2.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+2.3 pts
Total
9.5
+11.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.