TB vs COL prediction for August 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 5.1 - TB 5.7. TB is favored with a 53.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.5. Model projects 10.8 total runs.
COL
5.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.5
TB
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLTB
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
11.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.7% (3,172 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
468
COL
357
Projected
COL 5.1 — TB 5.7
Actual
COL 0 — TB 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nick Martinez R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI31%92 mph8% whiff
CH27%78 mph31% whiff
FC21%89 mph11% whiff
Tomoyuki Sugano R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FS21%87 mph31% whiff
FF21%92 mph13% whiff
SI19%92 mph3% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
77°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.096 Total: 1.047
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.68ERA
3.98FIP
8.94K/9
3.03BB/9
1.15WHIP
COL
4.94ERA
4.31FIP
7.65K/9
3.89BB/9
1.50WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
3.4 runs
51.2% win
COL F5
2.7 runs
36.9% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
45.8%
YRFI
54.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.22
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Jeff Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Blas Castano RP15-DAY-IL
Jaden Hill RP15-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Nick Martinez (TB, 2.99 ERA, elite command 0.04 BB-rate) vs Tomoyuki Sugano (COL, 4.83 ERA, D-grade stuff) creates rare under value at Coors Field; model projects 10.78 runs vs market 11.5, +0.6% edge to under. COL bullpen (4.94 ERA) is league's 2nd-worst; TB runs +0.67 bullpen advantage. Coors +15% inflation already baked; Martinez's elite command mitigates.
Key Factors
- SP elite mismatch: Martinez (2.99 ERA, 0.13 K-rate, elite 0.042 BB-rate, A- command) vs Sugano (4.83 ERA, 0.14 K-rate, D-grade stuff) — 1.84 ERA swing is massive
- Coors park factor 1.18 (+18% runs), but model already accounts; market at 11.5 may be chasing inflation myth without pitcher adjustment
- Bullpen edge TB (3.68 ERA) > COL (4.94 ERA) — 1.26 ERA gap significant in close games
- COL swept by TB yesterday 4-0; lineup fatigue + bullpen overuse yesterday suggests continued under lean
Risk Factors
- Coors Field is the outlier exception — even elite pitchers get lit up; Martinez elite command helps but doesn't eliminate variance
- TB is away underdog; historical historically weak bias (a supportive track record away ML) — avoid full ML bet
- Market already set 11.5 which seems reasonable for Coors; +0.6% edge is slim — size accordingly
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.