SF vs TEX prediction for August 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 4.8 - SF 4.1. TEX is favored with a 56.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
TEX
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SF
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXSF
-1.5
Run Line (TEX)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.4% (3,172 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
246
TEX
357
Projected
TEX 4.8 — SF 4.1
Actual
TEX 6 — SF 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Carson Whisenhunt L
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH38%83 mph44% whiff
FF35%93 mph11% whiff
SL24%85 mph24% whiff
Cody Bradford L
TEX
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
98°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.078 Total: 1.040
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.55ERA
4.62FIP
7.14K/9
4.36BB/9
1.46WHIP
TEX
4.43ERA
4.41FIP
8.36K/9
3.65BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
2.1 runs
29.8% win
TEX F5
3.2 runs
56.2% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
53.1%
YRFI
46.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto RF10-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
MacKenzie Gore SPPATERNITY
Jack Leiter SP15-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Jakob Junis RP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Jose Corniell RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Model gap conflict: TEX favored 56.8% but SF starter Carson Whisenhunt (7.16 ERA) is terrible, yet Cody Bradford home return limited workload risk; edges on ML and run line are microscopic (0.4%, -3.5% respectively), signaling model uncertainty; 98°F heat + Bradford's durability unknown = volatility, not edge.
Key Factors
- Away pitcher Whisenhunt (7.16 ERA, 0.18 K-rate, C+ grade) is bottom-tier; Bradford return is wildcard (no 2026 data, 4.1 IP limitation expected)
- Temperature 98.3°F with ~4mph wind neutral = +1.04 density multiplier, inflates scoring ~0.35 runs, favoring model's 8.9 total projection
- TEX bullpen ERA 4.43 (above average); SF bullpen 4.55 (weak) — no advantage either side
- Model-market gap on ML minimal (0.4% edge to TEX) suggests pitching mismatch is priced; Bradford's workload unknown
Risk Factors
- Bradford returning from 2024 elbow recovery — limited to 4-5 IP per reports; TEX may go to bullpen early in close game
- SF has multiple 10-day IL players (Chapman, Bericoto, Bader, Rodriguez) — lineup flexibility compromised
- Heat (98°F) + SF road trip after sweep yesterday = injury/fatigue risk for both sides
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.