LAA vs SEA prediction for September 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 3.4 - LAA 3.7. LAA is favored with a 52.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
SEA
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
LAA
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEALAA
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.8% (4,034 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
246
SEA
135
Projected
SEA 3.4 — LAA 3.7
Actual
SEA 5 — LAA 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Reid Detmers L
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%94 mph17% whiff
SL33%86 mph34% whiff
CU11%72 mph36% whiff
Bryce Miller R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF39%96 mph17% whiff
FS24%85 mph28% whiff
SL11%87 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
54°F13 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.057 Total: 1.034
12mph out
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.22ERA
4.10FIP
9.40K/9
3.82BB/9
1.36WHIP
SEA
4.10ERA
4.19FIP
8.80K/9
3.39BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
2.0 runs
43.4% win
SEA F5
1.8 runs
38.1% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
58.4%
YRFI
41.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Ben Joyce RP15-DAY-IL
George Klassen SP15-DAY-IL
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
Kyren Paris 2B10-DAY-IL
Samy Natera Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Andres Munoz RP15-DAY-IL
Brock Rodden SS10-DAY-IL
Nick Davila RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Brennen Davis CF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.