MIA vs ARI prediction for September 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ARI 4.8 - MIA 4.7. ARI is favored with a 54.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.5 total runs.
ARI
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
MIA
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARIMIA
-1.5
Run Line (ARI)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.3% (3,953 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
357
ARI
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Gusto R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%95 mph19% whiff
CH14%87 mph18% whiff
ST13%82 mph14% whiff
Merrill Kelly R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%92 mph12% whiff
CH28%88 mph29% whiff
FC13%91 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
82°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.015 Total: 1.005
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
4.21ERA
3.96FIP
9.71K/9
4.34BB/9
1.30WHIP
ARI
3.20ERA
3.43FIP
8.16K/9
2.99BB/9
1.14WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.7 runs
42.0% win
ARI F5
2.9 runs
44.0% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
49.0%
YRFI
51.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.20
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Owen Caissie RF10-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ARI5 injured
Tyler Locklear 1B60-DAY-IL
Ryan Thompson RP60-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Andrew Saalfrank RP60-DAY-IL
Cristian Mena RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.