FINAL: SD 8 — MIA 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SD 3.5 - MIA 3.6 (SD at 50.3% win probability). SD wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
SD
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIA
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDMIA
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MIASD W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.1% (3,988 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
246
SD
245
Projected
SD 3.5 — MIA 3.6
Actual
SD 8 — MIA 2
Pick Results
MIA MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tyler Phillips R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI26%96 mph5% whiff
ST24%84 mph31% whiff
FS23%87 mph34% whiff
Nick Pivetta R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF52%94 mph16% whiff
CU20%79 mph22% whiff
FC13%91 mph6% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
71°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.992 Total: 0.994
5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
4.20ERA
3.95FIP
9.73K/9
4.30BB/9
1.30WHIP
SD
2.90ERA
3.51FIP
9.84K/9
3.70BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
ML AWAY
+18.7% EV
+171
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-16.3% EV
-105
ML HOME
-14.0% EV
-189
F5_ML AWAY
+13.9% EV
+146
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-13.5% EV
+114
NRFI YRFI
-11.9% EV
+106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.0 runs
41.4% win
SD F5
2.0 runs
40.1% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
58.8%
YRFI
41.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
13%
Griffin Conine MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.262 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Nick Pivetta | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Kyle Stowers MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.231 | Barrel: 10.7% | vs Nick Pivetta | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Heriberto Hernández MIA29.2%
ISO: 0.125 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Nick Pivetta | Park: 0.90x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tyler Phillips
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Nick Pivetta
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Owen Caissie RF10-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Gavin Sheets 1B10-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Laureano LF60-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Nick Pivetta's edge over Tyler Phillips (28.3% vs 19.1% K rate, both similar ERAs near 3.85) does not justify SD's extreme -192 price (65.8% implied), leaving MIA's +170 line as genuine underdog value that the model captures at 41.6% win probability (12.4% edge).
Key Factors
- Pivetta 3.89 ERA (B, 28.3% K rate) vs Phillips 3.83 ERA (B-, 19.1% K rate) — ERAs nearly identical despite the K-rate gap
- Market -192 implies 65.8% SD win probability, a 24.2-point gap versus model's 41.6% MIA figure — the market's price looks too extreme for the actual talent gap
- PETCO Park 0.992 total mult (pitcher-friendly) helps Pivetta, but this is already reflected in the heavy price
- SD bullpen 2.90 ERA (elite, best on slate) is real, but already baked into the -192 line
- Model edge (12.4%) sits historically mixed but very small sample limits statistical confidence
Risk Factors
- SD's elite bullpen (2.90 ERA) is a legitimate late-game weapon that could close out close games MIA might otherwise steal
- Small sample historical support means this specific bucket's a supportive track record should be treated cautiously
- Pivetta's 28.3% K rate could suppress MIA's offense more than the model's run-prevention estimate captures
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 50.3%
-13.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-13.5 pts
Total
7.5
+10.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.