MIA vs SD prediction for September 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.9 - MIA 3.3. SD is favored with a 60.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
SD
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIA
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDMIA
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.3% (4,016 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
135
SD
246
Projected
SD 3.9 — MIA 3.3
Actual
SD 7 — MIA 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Eury Pérez R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF38%98 mph21% whiff
SI17%98 mph13% whiff
SL17%88 mph42% whiff
Casey Mize R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%93 mph17% whiff
SL28%87 mph23% whiff
FS24%88 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
75°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.998 Total: 0.996
5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
4.32ERA
4.00FIP
9.78K/9
4.32BB/9
1.31WHIP
SD
2.91ERA
3.49FIP
9.84K/9
3.67BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
1.7 runs
34.6% win
SD F5
2.2 runs
46.2% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
59.2%
YRFI
40.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Owen Caissie RF10-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Gavin Sheets 1B10-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Laureano LF60-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.