MIL vs BAL prediction for September 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 3.1 - MIL 4.7. MIL is favored with a 70.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
BAL
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIL
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALMIL
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 75.4% (4,016 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
357
BAL
135
Projected
BAL 3.1 — MIL 4.7
Actual
BAL 0 — MIL 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jacob Misiorowski R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF63%100 mph36% whiff
FC14%96 mph21% whiff
SL12%92 mph33% whiff
Brandon Young R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%94 mph18% whiff
FS19%84 mph27% whiff
SL15%84 mph39% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
77°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.003 Total: 0.999
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.03ERA
3.38FIP
9.51K/9
3.54BB/9
1.19WHIP
BAL
3.98ERA
3.71FIP
8.81K/9
3.63BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
2.6 runs
56.1% win
BAL F5
1.5 runs
26.5% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
56.5%
YRFI
43.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.90
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIL6 injured
Grant Anderson RP15-DAY-IL
Bryse Wilson RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
Angel Zerpa RP60-DAY-IL
BAL8 injured
Tyler O'Neill RF60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Jackson Holliday 2B10-DAY-IL
Kyle Bradish SP15-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.