MIL vs LAD prediction for August 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 3.7 - MIL 3.5. LAD is favored with a 53.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
LAD
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIL
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADMIL
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.8% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
245
LAD
246
Projected
LAD 3.7 — MIL 3.5
Actual
LAD 2 — MIL 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Henderson R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%93 mph19% whiff
CH32%82 mph34% whiff
FC19%87 mph16% whiff
Tarik Skubal L
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%97 mph22% whiff
CH26%87 mph48% whiff
SI21%97 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
83°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.069 Total: 1.037
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.37ERA
3.56FIP
9.16K/9
3.67BB/9
1.25WHIP
LAD
3.87ERA
3.88FIP
10.22K/9
4.25BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
1.8 runs
36.5% win
LAD F5
2.1 runs
44.3% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
59.1%
YRFI
40.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
Brice Turang 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Cooper Pratt SS10-DAY-IL
Sal Frelick RF10-DAY-IL
Abner Uribe RP15-DAY-IL
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Justin Wrobleski SP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP60-DAY-IL
Dalton Rushing C10-DAY-IL
Will Smith C60-DAY-IL
Gavin Stone SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Treinen RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.