FINAL: ARI 2 — NYY 9. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected ARI 4.4 - NYY 3.7 (ARI at 62.6% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
ARI
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYY
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARINYY
+1.5
Run Line (ARI)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYY W4ARI W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.4% (3,988 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
246
ARI
246
Projected
ARI 4.4 — NYY 3.7
Actual
ARI 2 — NYY 9
Pick Results
ARI MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gerrit Cole R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF49%97 mph20% whiff
SL20%90 mph26% whiff
KC14%83 mph18% whiff
Eduardo Rodriguez L
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%92 mph19% whiff
CH27%85 mph27% whiff
FC13%89 mph15% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
98°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.065 Total: 1.032
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.21ERA
4.13FIP
8.27K/9
3.64BB/9
1.24WHIP
ARI
3.18ERA
3.42FIP
8.12K/9
2.97BB/9
1.13WHIP
Betting Edges
NRFI YRFI
-13.1% EV
-114
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-12.8% EV
+156
ML HOME
+11.5% EV
-106
F5 OVER 4.5
-10.9% EV
+100
F5_ML HOME
+7.0% EV
-104
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-6.0% EV
-111
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.0 runs
35.2% win
ARI F5
2.5 runs
48.6% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
55.9%
YRFI
44.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.93
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
66%
No HR
10%
Corbin Carroll ARI28.4%
ISO: 0.222 | Barrel: 11.4% | vs Gerrit Cole | Park: 1.06x Platoon: 1.12x
Ben Rice NYY27.8%
ISO: 0.201 | Barrel: 15.1% | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | Park: 1.06x
Paul Goldschmidt NYY25.9%
ISO: 0.287 | Barrel: 11.8% | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | Park: 1.06x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Gerrit Cole
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Eduardo Rodriguez
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY7 injured
Aaron Judge RFOUT
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Ryan Weathers SP15-DAY-IL
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B10-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP15-DAY-IL
Kervin Castro RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
ARI5 injured
Tyler Locklear 1B60-DAY-IL
Ryan Thompson RP60-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Andrew Saalfrank RP60-DAY-IL
Cristian Mena RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Gerrit Cole's superior command (0.83 vs Rodriguez's 0.56) and higher strikeout rate (24.9% vs 18.3%) make NYY's pitching case stronger than the raw ERA numbers suggest, but Aaron Judge's day-to-day status plus historically weakd home-ML profile on ARI removes enough certainty to stay off this game.
Key Factors
- Model favors ARI (54.1%) DESPITE Rodriguez's higher ERA (2.83) being lower than Cole's (3.96) — the edge comes from ARI's home field and bullpen, NOT superior starting pitching; Cole actually has the better command/K-rate profile
- historically weak home ML (54.2% training WR, worse in resolved bets, n=211) — auto-caution flag
- Model 54.1% ARI vs market implied 56.1% — market is actually slightly MORE bullish on ARI than the model, a small negative edge for the home side
- Chase Field's 1.028 total mult and thin air (97.8F) support offense generally, benefiting both lineups
- ARI bullpen (3.18 ERA, elite) outclasses NYY's (3.21 ERA) only marginally — not a decisive factor
Risk Factors
- Aaron Judge (NYY RF) DAY-TO-DAY, lower leg — uncertain availability could swing NYY's offensive output materially (~0.5 runs) if he sits
- historically weak home favorite profile historically underperforms in real money
- Model and market are already close to agreement, meaning there's no exploitable edge either way
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ARI 62.6%
+3.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+3.5 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.